Boise State and Ball State, both 11-0, are actually undefeated but unproven, overrated top 25 teams
Both Boise State and Ball State are 11-0 so far this season and have earned some bragging rights. After all, they are 2 of only 4 teams remaining undefeated among the 119 schools in Division 1-A at this point in the college football season. Utah is 12-0 and Alabama is 11-0.
Entering the competition on Saturday (11-22-08), Alabama was ranked No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll, Utah was No. 8, Boise State was No. 9 and Ball State was No. 14. Perhaps even more importantly, the BCS standings had Alabama at No. 1, Utah at No. 7, Boise State at No. 9 and Ball State at No. 17.
I have no problem with Alabama and Utah ranking in any of the polls, but I do have some serious issues with Boise State and Ball State ranking so high.
The players, coaches, fans, promoters and citizens of Boise, Idaho (home of the Boise State Broncos) and Muncie, Indiana (home of the Ball State Cardinals) should be understandably excited about their teams’ success.
There should be a lot of hoopla and yelling in Boise and Muncie. It’s not easy to go undefeated through 11 games when you’re competing at any level.
With that being said, my gag complex is on red alert because I believe that both Boise State and Ball State are neither the 9th nor 17th best teams in the nation, based on BCS rankings. The strength of the calendar apparently has no influence on the BCS ranking.
Entering Saturday’s competition, Boise State’s schedule strength was 123rd and Ball State’s was 127th among 119 Division 1-A schools, according to Sagarin College Football Ratings.
This means that both teams have built their undefeated records on teams that, on average, are below the caliber of Division 1-A. I consider this to be a serious chink in his armor.
Last season, the Hawaii Warriors posted a 12-0 record before winning a BCS Sugar Bowl date with Georgia and then losing 41-10 to the Bulldogs. And exactly how did Hawaii build that undefeated 12-0 record that dropped them to No. 10 in the final AP Top 25 poll? I’m glad you finally asked. That is how:
The 12 teams defeated by the Hawaii Warriors had a combined 53-92 won-lost record for a high winning percentage of .365 (37%). Their casualties included 1-11 Northern Colorado (a 1-AA team), 1-11 Idaho, 2-10 UNLV, 2-10 Utah State, 4-9 New Mexico State, 4-9 Washington, 5-7 Louisiana. Tech, 5-7 San Jose State, 5-6 Charleston Southern (another 1-AA team), 6-6 Nevada, 8-4 Fresno State and 10-2 Boise State.
I could call Fresno State and Boise State good teams with a straight face. I’m not sure what the other 10 teams are except mediocre, bad to terrible.
So was Hawaii really the 10th-best team in the country before the Sugar Bowl? Not in your life. The fact is, Hawaii could easily have been beaten by a lot more teams than they played last year.
Not to be outdone by Hawaii, this year no fewer than 3 undefeated non-major conference teams have risen from the ashes in hopes of a BCS Bowl Game opportunity: 12-0 Mountain West Conference Utah, 11-0 Boise State of the Western Athletic Conference and 11-0 Ball State of the Mid American Conference.
I have no problem with Utah, as their strength on the schedule is just 4 points behind No. 1-ranked 11-0 Alabama, 72-76. If you’re wondering, No. 3 Florida (10-1) ranked ranked eighth in schedule strength and No. 4 Texas (10-1) ranked seventh in schedule strength heading into Saturday’s contest.
If Alabama makes it to the BCS National Championship Game, the Crimson Tide could be in for a bit of a surprise.
Boise State has built its undefeated record of 11-0 this year by winning against teams with a combined record of 58-77 for a winning percentage of .429 (43%). Bronco casualties have included 1-11 Idaho State (a 1-AA team), 2-10 Idaho, 2-9 Utah State, 3-8 New Mexico State, 5-6 Bowling Green, 5-6 Southern Mississippi, 6 – 6 San Jose State, 6-5 Hawaii, 6-5 Nevada, 7-4 Louisiana State, 7-4 Fresno State and 8-3 Oregon.
You could call Fresno State and Oregon good teams, but the rest of them aren’t even on the radar screen as good by any measure.
The Boise State Broncos posted an undefeated 12-0 regular season in 2006 and faced Oklahoma in the BCS Fiesta Bowl, winning 43-42 in overtime to record a historic win by a mid-tier team over a major football program. loaded. It was a glorious moment for Boise State and its boosters.
However, one has to wonder what Boise State’s record would have been that year if the Broncos had played Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Nebraska (teams with a combined 36-8 record) like Oklahoma has had to. this year. Boise State certainly wouldn’t have entered the Fiesta Bowl with a 12-0 record.
Ball State has built its undefeated record of 11-0 this year by winning against teams with a combined record of 51-82 for a winning percentage of .383 (38%). Cardinal casualties have included 2-10 Northeastern (a 1-AA school), 2-9 Western Kentucky (another 1-AA school), 2-9 Eastern Michigan, 2-9 Miami of Ohio, 3-9 Indiana, 3- 8 Kent State, 3-8 Toledo, 5-6 Akron, 6-4 Navy, 6-5 Northern Illinois, 8-3 Central Michigan and 9-2 Western Michigan.
If Ball State had played Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Nebraska (teams with a combined 36-8 record) like Oklahoma has had to this year, there’s no way the Cardinals would be 11-0.
Is Ball State the 17th best team in America? I doubt it. If Ball State gets a better bowl game against a worthy opponent, it will be interesting to see how the Cardinals fare.
Utah, Boise State and Ball State will be able to bring their game during bowl season. If they are playing in more than just a game of rinky-dinky bowling, it will actually mean something.
Copyright © 2008 Ed Bagley