College Football Revenge!
In sports betting, revenge is a tricky angle. For one thing, there are many times in college and professional football when a team is eager to hit an opponent. Last year, Texas was tired of losing to Oklahoma and had a weapon in quarterback Vince Young to help get it done. The Longhorns crushed the Sooners 45-12 as a 12-point favorite.
The Chargers seemed to have something extra on Sunday night, defeating the defending champions 23-13 in the second half. Pittsburgh had outscored San Diego 24-22 a year ago. Revenge can be a powerful motivator in sports.
However, you can find so many situations where a team may be motivated by revenge, but fail to do so or cover the number. Remember, while Texas got its revenge on Oklahoma in 2005, the Sooners had steamrolled Texas for 5 straight years! Where as the Longhorn revenge angle during that long drought? And where was Oklahoma’s revenge angle Saturday in the rematch, which Texas won and covered again? 5 Earlier turnovers decided the game far more than any revenge angle.
It is much better to use revenge with many other factors when analyzing a soccer game. For example, a few weeks ago the Patriots hosted Denver, a team that had eliminated them from the playoffs 8 months earlier. It certainly looked like a revenge point for the Pats, but they settled as 6-point favorites. That was a large number of bets for a team that was a good match for New England from a defensive standpoint. There was no revenge either, as Denver not only covered but went on to win the game.
Once again, you bet on using multiple betting angles in a game that could include revenge. For example, on Saturday I had South Florida over UConn. Revenge was a part of the reason. UConn had beaten South Florida 15-10 last season in freezing conditions, a loss that knocked the Bulls out of the BCS bowl race. But there was more than that.
Plus, Connecticut is a one-dimensional team with no passing game. They have yet to throw for 200 yards in any game and were actually limited to 27 passing yards at Indiana. Connecticut had managed just 5 touchdowns against its three Division 1-A opponents. South Florida is a solid run defense team, holding 4 of 5 opponents under 150 rushing yards. And UConn’s run defense hasn’t played well, something I felt South Florida could take advantage of.
If you’ve seen South Florida play, you have to be impressed with their rookie QB Matt Groethe. He is fast, athletic, makes good decisions and is an excellent runner. Finally, South Florida has a strong coaching staff and had an extra day to prepare and faced a tougher schedule. I expected the Bulls to win that easily, which they did 38-16 as a 7-point favorite. They had 205 rushing yards and completely shut down UConn’s running game.
Other times, the betting lines may be too high because the bettor has taken revenge into account. That same day I turned in SMU against UTEP, even though it was a Miners rematch spot. I noted, “Is UTEP capable of winning by a huge margin? UTEP can’t run football, averaging only 3.1 yards per carry. They’ve managed just 311 rushing yards in four games. It’s very hard to extend a margin if you can’t take time off the clock, especially when you’re a weak defensive team against the pass San Diego State is woeful offensively, but threw for 275 yards against UTEP New Mexico State feasted on this passing defense for 506 yards SMU he has held up for 133 points the past three weeks, passing for 248, 231 and 261 passing yards.
“They’ve also shown the ability to run the ball. Quarterback Willis has a 12-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and is completing 68% of his passes. SMU walked into the Superdome and beat Tulane in a very emotional environment for the host. In doing so, they held the Green Wave to negative 33 rushing yards. The Mustangs have allowed a combined 102 rushing yards in the last three games. It’s obvious the Miners won’t have success on the ground. That makes them a One-dimensional offense with a very weak defense. Not a great combination for a double-digit favorite. Not only do we think SMU will cover this game, but we’ll put quite a bit of our money line funds on a +13 dog.”
I didn’t cash on the money line, but I easily got the cover as UTEP pulled out a 24-21 victory, still turning a nice profit. SMU played poorly with 4 turnovers, but still almost won. Again, revenge in soccer can be an important betting item, but only when other factors are also supporting that team.